Final Oscar Predictions: Best Director

Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker

Bigelow has been winning in almost every place she can win an award, and even though she lost the Golden Globe to her ex-husband, there is still a lot of strong support for her. The biggest tip in her favor is in two facts. One: she won the DGA Award, which proudly states it being one of the best predictors for who will eventually win the category at the Oscar. The second: if she were to win, she would become the first female director to take this prize. Oscar likes to feel “important” in their winners, and Bigelow would make the Academy seem like the progressive group it aspires to be.

Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker

While The Hurt Locker is an imperfect film, weighed down immensely by Mark Boal’s meandering script, Bigelow is the reason why any bit of this film works at all. Her direction knows exactly how to amp up the quiet tension, and then how to indulge in the small character moments that showcases the intense, fractured lives of these men. Among this group of nominees, Bigelow is absolutely the most deserving for elevating her film by her efforts alone. Still, my heart will always belong to true winner in this category, Spike Jonze, whose Where the Wild Things Are created an emotional world that mesmerized me beyond belief. Alas, his name is not here, and Bigelow’s is.

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

Will Win: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart

Here we have another veteran of the industry, recognized before with many nominations but never winning, getting his chance to shine. Bridges’s buzz came late in the game, but after taking all the right precursors, he is in prime position to take the Oscar. People like Bridges and they like his performance in the film. These will work in his favor and should give him the boost to be called that night. I can’t shake the feeling that Colin Firth or Jeremy Renner could pull an “Adrien Brody” and make for a surprising upset, but I feel the consensus says that Bridges will take it.

Should Win: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart

The great thing about this performance is that even though it plays right into the “Always-Nominated-Never-Won-Before” scheme, this is still a worthy performance in Bridges’s career and would not be a consolation prize. Bridges shows once again why he’s a great actor, creating a fully fleshed out character that holds all the great passion and emotion we’ve come to expect from him. I have to say that this category is particularly strong (except for Freeman), and while Bridges just beats out Colin Firth in a photo-finish, my vote still goes to Jeff for continuing to provide amazing performances.

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

Will Win: Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side

Even after Bullock won the SAG Award, I was still hoping that the “Bullock vs. Streep” battle could still have plenty of steam left in the Oscar races. It still is tight between the two, but given the fact that The Blind Side managed a surprise Best Picture nomination, I think that speaks volumes to the amount of love the Academy has just not for her, but the film in general. Plus, she’s a nice personality, very popular, and grateful all the way. I feel this is her Erin Brockovich moment, and her time in the sun will come. I would also say that even if you didn’t like the film or her in it (myself included), you have to admit that seeing Bullock go from dark horse Oscar contender to full out Best Actress frontrunner is a pretty amazing story.

Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe - Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

You can keep “Team Sandra” and “Team Meryl”; I’m with “Team Gabby”! Sidibe manages to bring such emotion and depth to a character that I had no means to connect with. She brings humor and an uplifting attitude to a character that must endure the hardest of hardships imaginable. And to those who say she only played herself, look at her performance in this film and then look at her in interviews. This is a completely different person in each, and the fact that she not only could transform herself into this different person with a first time try, but that it would be as successful as it was, is an incredible accomplishment. She won’t get the award, but she truly deserves it, in my opinion.

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

They might as well rename this category as Best Villain in a Motion Picture, because the past two winners in this category (three if you want to stretch Alan Arkin) have gone to a memorable antagonist. It looks like Waltz is set to continue the trend here, as best-in-show reviews and a general sweep of all the major precursor awards have indicated thus far. I’d still be on the lookout for veteran Christopher Plummer to play on his seniority and grab one MAJOR upset (like Arkin or James Coburn), but the safe bet really is Waltz.

Should Win: Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Among all of the imperfections I found in Quentin Tarantino’s often tedious and meandering film, there was one spot that went unblemished. Waltz is the main reason why I continue to be drawn to this film despite my lukewarm feeling to it as a whole. Waltz’s charm and tense intimidation gives life to what could have been a flat character. For every moment he is on screen, there is an excitement that fills the frame. He is the best thing in a movie that I grew restless with, and would be excited for him to take the award like it is predicted.

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Mo’Nique - Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

There are many people who remember a time when there was a question as to whether or not Mo’Nique could take this due to rumors she wasn’t campaigning hard enough and seeming like she didn’t want the award. Well, those days are long gone. She has been gracious at every award show she’s attended, and has truly let the performance speak for itself. This is a situation where people are awarding her not because she asked for it, but because the performance deserves it, and she should continue that streak all the way to the end.

Should Win: Mo’Nique - Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

If you came to me as far back as two years ago and said that a co-lead from Soul Plane would be in a position to become an Oscar winner, and that I would agree that person deserved to win, I would have called you crazy. And I would have sought to have you committed if that person was Mo’Nique. But I have to say that her performance is incredible: agonizingly cruel yet subversively sympathetic, she creates a character that will be remembered for her monstrosity that played well with a complex core that showed itself in true passion at the film’s end. I never thought I’d want to hear the phrase, “Academy Award Winner Mo’Nique” ever in my life, but so the day has come.

Review: Shutter Island

Shutter Down

I was so ready to leave the rather mediocre year of 2009 behind, and get onto the new one ahead. I looked at the onslaught of new releases and was so ready to see many new movies being released. This one caught my eye particularly because it was supposed to be released in early October of last year. Unfortunately, the studio didn’t have enough money for an Oscar campaign, so they pulled it and dumped it in the barren wasteland of February. I didn’t like it, but at least it gave me something to look forward to early in the year, and with so many great elements going into the film, I surely thought that this talented group of people would have to work mighty hard to make this movie be anything but magnificent. Well, the lesson to be learned here is never doubt anything, as this film certainly isn’t terrible, but it is well below the level of quality I expected from this masterful cast and crew.

Based on the novel by Dennis Lehane, who also wrote the source material for Mystic River and Gone Baby Gone, the story revolves around US Marshall Teddy Daniels (Leonardo DiCaprio), who is sent to investigate the disappearance of a mental patient on a tucked away institution on a far-away island. Mark Ruffalo accompanies him as his fresh new partner, and the pair begin their investigation, which comes across some seedy characters including the hospital’s top physician Dr. Cawley (Ben Kingsley), the deputy warden (John Carroll Lynch), the chief warden (Ted Levine), another dubious, German doctor (Max von Sydow), as well as able body character actors like Emily Mortimer, Patricia Clarkson and Jackie Earle Haley as other members of the hospital’s ward.

We all know that Martin Scorsese is a genius of filmmaking, and his talent is one that is unmatched by a large majority. Scorsese also knows how to work well in many genres, particularly the pulpy mystery like this one is. There are a lot of moments where Scorsese does do a fine job at creating an eerie mood of suspense and dread, and uses many of the technical elements to his advantage. However, it still feels like many times Scorsese can’t quite figure out what pitch to set the film at, and what we get is a pretty unbearable first twenty minutes when the over-the-top, grandiose setting seems to overpower the narrative and a last act that moves at a crawl and is bogged down by countless mono-a-mono explanatory conversations. These moments work rather well in the book, but have a difficult time translating to the screen.

But still, I would say that while the beginning and end are at major fault, there are some things in the middle, right after the first trippy dream sequence Daniels has featuring his recently departed wife (Michelle Williams). There’s quite good use of Robert Richardson’s stylish, theatrical lighting to create an uneasy mood, and the suspense can be featured quite well. Unfortunately, there are many moments where the tone switches drastically, and we linger on many scenes that either don’t seem necessary or overindulge too much on audience misdirection that could have been toned down. A side note is this film has some of the worst uses of green screen backgrounds.

Now, the ending is something that affects this movie, so I will talk about it, but I will also include the spoiler warning. So, WARNING!!! SPOILER ALERT!!! THERE’S A SPOILER COMING UP IN BOLD LETTERS SO YOU CAN’T MISS IT!!! ALRIGHT, YOU’VE BEN WARNED THERE’S A SPOILER WARNING!!!!

The final reveal is a rather weak twist, one I thought was pretty weak even in the book, but the novel never let the audience catch on that quickly. The film tries to plant hints that can either be interpreted as Daniels is grieving for the lives loss at a death camp he liberated during World War II or his dead children at the hands of his wife whom he killed and caused him to be in the institution all the time. However, the use of the death camp was an absolute minimum in the book while the film exploits the images in excess. Also, the final scene that shows what really happened goes on for far too long, especially after we’ve had many characters explaining what already happened (not to mention the supposedly drowned little girl can clearly be seen to be moving on the lawn).

As is usually the case, the cast is the last thing to go wrong, and the performers are good here, even though DiCaprio feels as if he’s just rehashing his Depahhted accent. Ruffalo, Kingsley, Haley, Clarkson, Sydow, all are terrific actors, but they feel wasted in such a plodding film that never gives them great moments to shine. The film is so concentrated on the mood, tone, and concealing of that big twist that it never takes the time to let the actors breathe life into this material. This is truly a wasted ensemble.

Scorsese is capable of creating pulpy mystery/suspense films, and a very good example would be his remake of Cape Fear, which I thought was actually superior to the original. But that had complex characters circling around a plot that wasn’t devoted to the last act. That’s the issue with this film; it’s too focused on misdirection and never lets intellectual thought and reason seep in. As much as it saddens me, this is not a great Scorsese film and becomes yet another disappointment in the new decade. The next film that I had high hopes for is Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland, and I really hope that one can at least live up to some of its hype. **1/2 / ****; GRADE: C+

Review: The Wolfman

Howling Wolf

I find it hard to believe myself that I made it nearly a month and a half into 2010 without seeing a new film. Much of my time at the beginning of this new decade was spent playing catch up to some late release 2009 films that were just making their way into Chicago. I know that I meant to get to films like The Book of Eli, Daybreakers, The Edge of Darkness, and a number of other films, but they all went by the wayside while I indulged in seeking out films like The Last Station and repeated viewings of Avatar. But I finally get to one, and this was also a film that I had been looking forward to seeing, despite the production being plagued with problems. Well the long wait for a 2010 release is over. Unfortunately, the wait for a good film for the new year is still on, as this film is arguably one of this early year's greatest disappointments.

Benicio Del Toro, certainly looking the part, is the wolfman himself, Lawrence Talbot, a Shakespearean actor who returns to his ancestral home in response to the death of his brother. He reunites with his estranged father (Anthony Hopkins) and starts a connection with his brother's fiancee (Emily Blunt). While digging up information about his brother's death, he is bitten by the wolf, which of course leads to him becoming a werewolf himself. Hugo Weaving also steps in as Detective Aberline (yes, that Aberline) who is determined to solve the mystery of these brutal killings.

I am a big fan of the original film, and while I wasn't expecting this to be a carbon copy of the original, I was expecting a film to have some kind of cohesiveness while paying some kind of homage to the original film. Director Joe Johnston and writers Andrew Kevin Walker and David Self do provide some interesting character moments and a few sparse, well played action sequences. However, most of the time spent in this film is given to a cluttered mess of conflicting tones and themes. Most of the action that happens lacks energy and overindulges in a bloody, gory scene (seriously folks, this is one violent film). The weak story, cluttered with flat characters, is joined by distracting editing, dark lighting, a bombastic score from Danny Elfman, and a showdown climax that is just ridiculous.

This cast is very talented, but they do nothing in this film. Literally. It feels like everyone just showed up to their costume fitting, went right to the set and read their lines from cue-cards. Del Toro phones in a bland performance that never once capitalizes on the emotional and psychological complexities that a werewolf story can provide. This is one of his worst performances. Hopkins also goes bland here, while also going in and out of a cockney accent. Blunt is virtually wasted in a nothing performance and Weaving, while providing a few good moments with his character, mostly seems like he's doing Agent Smith with an English accent.

Despite some people feeling this would be a bad movie from the get-go, I was really looking forward to it. However, those involved wasted an opportunity to create a moody, stylish Wolfman film for the new age and instead made a film that's light on scares, entertainment and intelligence. The cast is talented but useless, and the execution takes all the wrong turns. Hopefully next week's newest 2010 release, Shutter Island, won't be as big a disappointment as this was. *1/2 / ****; GRADE: C-