Commentary: Chicago Film Critics Nominations

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Usually, I save my commentary for the actual Oscars, with mentions pre- and post-nominations and pre- and post-ceremony. Now, with the news of the Chicago Film Critics announcing their nominees, I felt as if I should take special note to say something about this group's choices, and try to predict their winners which will be announced Thursday. I live in Chicago and am an avid fan of their critics, particularly the Tribune's Michael Phillips and, to a lesser extent, the Times's Roger Ebert. I've noticed some of their trends, so their nods don't surprise me, which is a good thing considering what they've picked.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
WALL*E
Slumdog Millionaire

With the exception of Benjamin, which must have had a very advanced screening, all of these films have shown in Chicago, and the critics loved them all. Slumdog is the current critical frontrunner, and it would make sense for them to select this film. However, I'm going to make a bold prediction and say The Dark Knight will be the big winner here. Chicagoans love their city as Gotham, and its one of the appeals the critics attached to. The safe choice is Danny Boyle, but I really think Batman will find its one critic group here.

Predicted Winner: The Dark Knight
Possible Upset: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
Andrew Stanton - WALL*E
Gus Van Sant - Milk

A perfect match up with Best Picture, it's also possible that Nolan will win with the movie. However, I think Chicago critics have really grown to like Fincher's style, since they nominated him last year with Zodiac. I think his inventive direction is going to take it here, with Boyle actually being the surprise upset.

Predicted Winner: David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Possible Upset: Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire

Best Actor
Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Clint is always loved here, and the rest of the nominees are pretty clear. The Visitor was always a film that got a lot of press with Chicago critics, and they've tried to keep this film afloat. To keep that momentum, I think Jenkins is going to win here. If they choose to play it safe, then I'd go with Sean Penn, but ever since Crash, this group hasn't made too many safe choices (disregarding last year with the No Country for Old Men sweep).

Predicted Winner: Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Possible Upset: Sean Penn - Milk

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt

Much like The Visitor, Frozen River was one of those films Chicago critics latched onto and talked about over and over to try to keep the word going. Leo is a really viable contender here, but I think Hathaway in the other Chicago critical hit is going to be the victor here. If Leo was called, that wouldn't surprise me, but I think the universal love from RGM will mean a win for her.

Predicted Winner: Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Possible Upset: Melissa Leo - Frozen River

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Bill Irwin - Rachel Getting Married
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road

The one thing that pops into my mind is Phillips being on "At the Movies" and talking about Ledger in TDK before any competition for this category came out and he stated, "He's going to win, and he should." That's the general consensus with this group, and I think Ledger's campaign can claim another victory here. The tender performance from Irwin could upset, but I think Ledger's the safest thing with these awards.

Predicted Winner: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Possible Upset: Bill Irwin - Rachel Getting Married

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penélope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Rosemarie Dewitt - Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Typical list, not only for Chicago, but for any critic group out there. Not really any surprises at all. Here, I think this is a two person race between Dewitt and Cruz. In the end, I think Cruz will take it, but a very possible upset from Dewitt is not out of the question.

Predicted Winner: Penélope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona
Possible Upset: Rosemarie Dewitt - Rachel Getting Married

Best Original Screenplay
In Bruges
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Synecdoche, New York
WALL*E

In Bruges and Synecdoche, NY got a lot of love from Chicago, so their nominations don't surprise me at all. What may surprise some is that WALL*E will probably win here, with RGM a runner-up choice. The little robot was very muched liked in this city, and this will probably be the one award outside animated feature Chicago will give it.

Predicted Winner: WALL*E
Possible Upset: Rachel Getting Married

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire

Lots of good choices here, but since Slumdog might miss out on Best Picture and Director, this will probably be the category for it to come away a winner. TDK could very well take this award as well.

Predicted Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Possible Upset: The Dark Knight

Best Foreign Film
The Band's Visit
Che
A Christmas Tale
I've Loved You So Long
Let the Right One In

Predicted Winner: I've Loved You So Long
Possible Upset: A Christmas Tale

Best Documentary
American Teen
Dear Zachary
IOUSA
Man on Wire
Standard Operating Procedure

Predicted Winner: Man on Wire
Possible Upset: IOUSA

Best Animated Feature
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
The Tale of Desperaux
WALL*E
Waltz with Bashir

Predicted Winner: WALL*E
Possible Upset: Kung Fu Panda (if Hell freezes over)

Best Cinematography
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Fall
Slumdog Millionaire

Predicted Winner: The Dark Knight
Possible Upset: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL*E

Predicted Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Possible Upset: WALL*E

Most Promising Performer
Russell Brand - Forgetting Sarah Marshall
David Kross - The Reader
Linda Leandersson - Let the Right One IN
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire
Brandon Walters - Australia

Predicted Winner: Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire
Possible Upset: David Kross - The Reader

Most Promising Filmmaker
Tomas Alfredson - Let the Right One In
Lance Hammer - Ballast
Courtney Hunt - Frozen River
Martin McDonagh - In Bruges
Steve McQueen - Hunger

Predicted Winner: Martin McDonagh - In Bruges
Possible Upset: Courtney Hunt - Frozen River

I can't wait to see if I really know my Chicago critics on Thursday.