Post Oscar Analysis

Well, the event is finally over, and I do say that I am a bit proud of myself. Ever since I've been doing this, this was the year where I had the best average at predicting the winners, where I went 19 for 24 categories. With that, I do have some things to say as well.

For one, I'm glad that I went with that gut feeling and picked Slumdog Millionaire as the undeserving winner for Best Sound Mixing, making it's total of 8 Oscar wins exactly in the categories I predicted it to win in. In the other sound category, I have mixed feelings. One part of me is glad that The Dark Knight got another award beside Ledger, but another part is upset that the fantastic sound team behind WALL-E went home empty handed as well. Still, I'm somewhat happy.

Speaking of Ledger, the acceptance of his Oscar by his family was a deeply emotional moment, and seeing the teary eyes of everybody from Christopher Nolan to Brad Pitt made you realize the power in this event. Besides that, Cruz and Winslet were expected wins but always rather "meh" to me. And I know I am not the only one who agrees that Penn's win here was the more deserving performance. I wish I had had the guts to call it, but am still glad he won over Rourke. I could have done without the back half of his speech, though. If a political statement was to be made, I preferred it from Dustin Lance Black, who won for Milk's original screenplay, whose message came more from a softer heart.

In terms of the ceremony itself, I think Hugh Jackman did a nice job with the new outlook. Only Jackman could get away with it, though. I liked the opening number, but when the second one with Beyonce and Zac Efron came around, it felt a bit like overkill. Having five people introduce the acting categories seems like a nice change, only if you don't mind adding an extra ten minutes to each category (I really don't).

In the end, it was a rather typical night with very few surprises. If anyone happened to miss it, here are the winners. In the meantime, I'll be on the lookout for the next Oscar season.

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director: Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actor: Sean Penn - Milk
Best Actress: Kate Winslet - The Reader
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black - Milk
Best Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionaire
Best Animated Feature: WALL-E
Best Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Costume Design: The Duchess
Best Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Film Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Original Song: "Jai Ho" - Slumdog Millionaire
Best Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Sound: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
Best Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Foreign Language Film: Departures
Best Documentary Feature: Man on Wire
Best Live Action Short: Spielzeugland (Toyland)
Best Animated Short: La Maison en Petits Cubes
Best Documentary Short: Smile Pinki

Final Oscar Predictions: The Rest...

Best Animated Feature
Will Win: WALL-E
Should Win: WALL-E
-Do I really need to explain why this will and should win? I didn't think so.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Dustin Lance Black - Milk
Should Win: Dustin Lance Black - Milk
-Being the only Best Picture nominee in this category should give Milk a well deserved edge. WALL-E and In Bruges are likely spoilers, but look for Black to justly take this award.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionaire
-This is another category where Slumdog shouldn't have any problem picking up after its inital sweeps. To be fair, I think Doubt was a better written film, but Shanley didn't really do that much in terms of an adaptation, so I'd give my vote to Beaufoy.

Best Art Direction
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
-The year's most abundant visual spectacle should deservedly win here.

Best Costume Design
Will Win: The Duchess
Should Win: The Duchess
-The Duchess spent a long and hard campaign for Michael O'Connor's costumes. This and the Victorian era wardrobe are big pluses for the film.

Best Cinematography
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: The Dark Knight
-This is a category where really anyone can win. The Slumdog sweep should work here, which is actually very good. But in terms of the enhancement for the film, Wally Pfister's photography on The Dark Knight was magnificent. I wouldn't count on the Academy to see it that way, though.

Best Film Editing
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
-Again, I expect the sweep to continue here for the lively editing that kept the film's pace and one of only two awards I completely agree with it winning.

Best Original Score
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
-Here's the other one I agree with, as Rahman's score was without a doubt the best part of the movie and everyone seems to agree on that.

Best Original Song
Will Win: "Jai Ho" - Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: "Down to Earth" - WALL-E
-The Bruce Springsteen snub is still blasphemy, but with only three nominees, I found "Jai Ho" to be a tad overrated and "O Saya" to work better within the context of the film. Therefore, "Down to Earth" gets my vote, but rather by default. Though Slumdog should take this for it's catchy tune.

Best Makeup
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
-Making Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett look like ugly old people is not an easy task. That accomplishment alone deserves an Oscar.

Best Sound
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: WALL-E
-If WALL-E or The Dark Knight take this, then I'll kick myself for not listening to my insticts. But something tells me the irrational Slumdog sweep is going to be present here, and it seems all Best Picture frontrunners nominated here tend to win. The incredible sound team behind WALL-E should win, but I'm guessing they'll lose to the frontrunner.

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: WALL-E
Should Win: WALL-E
-Unlike the sound mixing category, I don't think the Best Picture frontrunner will win, leaving WALL-E the room to take this well deserved award.

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
-The dazzling innovations were noticed by everyone on the planet. Both Iron Man and The Dark Knight are possible spoilers, but Benjamin Button should very much take it.

These next categories are ones that I predict, but have seen usually only one or none of the nominees. I can't say who should win or give an extensive analysis, so I'll just say my prediction.

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Waltz with Bashir

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Man on Wire

Best Live Action Short
Will Win: Toyland

Best Animated Short
Will Win: Presto

Best Documentary Short
Will Win: The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

It's really fascinating to watch the effect that Slumdog had on the world. It started in a little corner and got passed around through general good word of mouth, and then built and literally snowballed all the buzz it received until nobody could stop it. Disregarding any like or dislike for the film, the journey this thing has been on, sweeping all of the major awards, has been a rare experience, and the journey should end with this top prize on Sunday night.

Should Win: Milk

I like Slumdog a lot and do think it deserves to be nominated for Best Picture. However, the one film nominated this year which made me declare a best film of the year was Milk. This was a movie that had a very strong lead performance from Sean Penn, an excellent supporting cast circling him (the SAG Awards weren't more wrong), a fantastic script, wonderful direction and a message that still holds strong today. It's a powerful film that more than trumps Slumdog in my opinion, and remains the only film this year to possibly unseat its triumphant buzz. I wouldn't count on it, but I would be ecstatic if it did.

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Director

Will Win: Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire

There doesn't seem to be any question as to who is going to win this award. Boyle has been on a fast track lately and has picked up almost every directing award you can possibly think of. He's gotten the Critic's Choice, Golden Globe and DGA Award, which has prided itself on being one of the best barometers for the actual Oscar winner. If you want, you can look for upsets concerning Fincher, Van Sant, or even Daldry (ugh!), but this happy Englishman should take the gold here.

Should Win: David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

To be honest, I really like Danny Boyle and would be happy to see him win. He's a guy who's been making great movies for a while and really deserves it. Though, I say the same thing to Fincher who also goes that little extra mile to make his films a true accomplishment. Fincher is the real star of Benjamin Button and his efforts behind the camera brought out brilliant performances and an amazing visual spectacle. Both him and Boyle are the definitions of achievement in directing, but Fincher laid it out tenfold, and I'd be a little happier to see him win (really, as long as Howard or Daldry don't win, I'll be happy).

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

Will Win: Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Sean Penn said it right when he picked up his SAG Award for Milk. "They've got their dogfight." Even though Penn was being cynical, he was absolutely right. Penn and Rourke are in a tough battle for the Oscar here, whether they like it or not. I personally think it's pretty much a coin toss between the two of them and wouldn't be surprised with either outcome. However, the story behind Rourke's comeback, plus those really entertaining speeches he gives, is so engaging that you can't help but want to reward the guy. Some people are even saying a vote split between the two might cause Langella to pull ahead, but I'd say Mickey's going to pin this one down.

Should Win: Sean Penn - Milk

I think both Penn and Rourke gave commanding performances, and in all honesty, I won't be terribly disappointed by either outcome. Still, I give the edge to Penn because in terms of delivering a performance, he was astonishing at being able to completely disappear into the character of Harvey Milk, and I totally believed him without even knowning who Milk was or how he acted. It's a genuine and engaging performance that is Penn's best in years, even better than Mystic River. Though, I do feel that premature win will come into play, and I'll still cheer Mickey on. I'm just cheering for Sean a little louder.

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

Will Win: Kate Winslet - The Reader

It's hard to imagine that such a wonderful and magnificent actress like Kate Winslet has endured five previous nominations without a single Oscar win. We can argue about Titanic, but certainly performances in Sense and Sensibilities and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind deserve some kind of recognition. Still, with two great performances offered this year, we all knew this would be the time when she'd get that Oscar but we didn't know for which role, either this or Revolutionary Road. With only one performance nominated, we can safely say she'll win for The Reader, a performance that has gotten enough attention for her to finally win.

Should Win: Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married

As much as I adore Winslet, and am happy to know she'll finally win an Oscar, my true vote belongs to Hathaway. Her performance in the film is showy at times, but it always feels like it's coming from the heart. Kim is not a character that one would really care about, but Hathaway's sensitive portrayal makes her a very endearing character. Here she proves that she's always been a good actress, and even though Winslet is one of the greatest there is, I'd still say Hathaway's performance stayed with me longer than most others I had seen this year.

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight

You'd have to take a mad gamble to bet against Ledger here. For one thing, he's managed to pick up nearly every award under the sun. Also, The Dark Knight was an extremely popular movie and this is the film's greatest accomplishment. And this of course will be the last opportunity to honor the memory and acting career of Ledger that was tragically cut too short. All the other nominees in this category should just be happy to hear their names called at the beginning and join the standing ovation for Ledger's name as he follows Peter Finch's lead.

Should Win: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight

I actually remember just waiting to see his performance fail to meet my expectations when I first saw The Dark Knight. But nothing of the sort happened, and he completely reinvented a character that I had already fallen in love with from Jack Nicholson. When you watch the movie, he's got so much passion, wit and energy that it's only until the closing credits' tribute that you realize he's really gone. This truly does belong to Ledger for a commanding and miraculous performance.

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Penélope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Cruz was the frontrunner in this race for a while but lost steam during the precursers when Winslet was winning in this category for The Reader. With Winslet in the leading category for that role, Cruz has slid back in the frontrunner position, as she has critical acclaim and a category that was usually favored very well with Woody Allen movies. I wouldn't be surprised if Davis possibly upsets, or a vote split between them causes Henson to slip through, but the safest bet here is Cruz.

Should Win: Viola Davis - Doubt

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In a movie that worked best when the subtleties and nuances were thick in the air, Davis was the one performer in the film that knew those true powers. Her efforts are grounded in such a real way that it brings a credibility to the discussion of this dark subject matter, something that was showboated a bit with Hoffman and Streep. Her ten minutes of screen time are the film's most memorable, and it is because of Davis's magnificent and real performance (though Rosemarie DeWitt from Rachel Getting Married would be my true winner in this category).

Surprise, Surprise...

*Yawn*...where's that snooze button? Wake me up on February 23.