Will Win: Penélope Cruz - Vicky Cristina BarcelonaCruz was the frontrunner in this race for a while but lost steam during the precursers when Winslet was winning in this category for The Reader. With Winslet in the leading category for that role, Cruz has slid back in the frontrunner position, as she has critical acclaim and a category that was usually favored very well with Woody Allen movies. I wouldn't be surprised if Davis possibly upsets, or a vote split between them causes Henson to slip through, but the safest bet here is Cruz.
Should Win: Viola Davis - Doubt
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In a movie that worked best when the subtleties and nuances were thick in the air, Davis was the one performer in the film that knew those true powers. Her efforts are grounded in such a real way that it brings a credibility to the discussion of this dark subject matter, something that was showboated a bit with Hoffman and Streep. Her ten minutes of screen time are the film's most memorable, and it is because of Davis's magnificent and real performance (though Rosemarie DeWitt from Rachel Getting Married would be my true winner in this category).
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