What if: DGA Awards

With the Directors Guild of America naming their winners tomorrow, I thought that this event will probably be the moment when the Oscar race becomes incredibly boring or spices up towards a little unpredictability. These are the nominees, as well as what I think may happen if one of them should win.

Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Boyle is the clear frontrunner here, and he is more than likely going to take this award. Golden Globe and DGA winners usually go onto Oscar. If he wins the top prize here, he's not only gaurenteed the statue for himself, but also for many of Slumdog's other nominations, officially making this Oscar race one sided and very boring.

David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Fincher is Boyle's greatest threat to the Oscar, mainly because he has a little more seniority than Boyle. Fincher is a well respected name who has that "overdue" status. The problem is that he, and his film, keeps losing out to Boyle. Fincher not only needs this to remain a serious threat (I'd still consider him one without it, just not a severe one) but Benjamin Button also needs a major win to potentially spoil the Best Picture Oscar as well. If he grabs it, then he's got a much better shot.

Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
I think he's the least likely to win this award, and I say that for the Oscar as well. However, if the unthinkable happens and Howard manages to pull this off, the only thing it will add is making this race a little bit murky, but still seeing an eye on Boyle to win. If Howard wins here, I actually think it will be more of a thought to name Frank Langella as the spoiler for the Best Actor Oscar.

Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
He's this year's only DGA nominee who isn't nominated at the Oscars as well (I still want to know who thought he was less deserving than Stephen Daldry!). I don't think that status is going to help or hurt him at all in this race. Still, should Nolan actually win here, not only would it be totally cool and provide some relief to the millions of grieving Dark Knight fans out there, it would really muddy this race up, throwing the Best Picture and Director Oscar races into dismay with Slumdog's buzz subsiding and Benjamin Button catching up (only because these directors' pieces I think would appeal to the same people). I wouldn't count on this happening, but it sure would be sweet.

Gus Van Sant - Milk
I thought Milk would take the SAG award for Best Ensemble, which would reaffirm my belief that this is the true Best Picture frontrunner. But when Slumdog Millionaire took it, I just thought people were falling for this movie in now an irrational manner. I'd still like to say that a backlash may occur for Slumdog but the case is hard to prove unless Van Sant wins here. He's an old favorite who championed a wonderful cast. My faith in the film's abilities will not be quite as strong if Van Sant fails to win here, but I'll still keep it in the back of my mind.


Bottom line: If Danny Boyle wins, just hit the snooze until February 22. If Fincher or Nolan win, it adds to Fincher's possibility of a strong spoiler. If Van Sant wins, Milk becomes a viable frontrunner for Best Picture. If Howard wins...Frank Langella may take the Oscar.